Bitcoin Range Trap: Smart Money Pins BTC Between $103K–$103.4K | Expiry Setup Explained

💡 Note: This analysis is based on AI-powered models and is shared for educational & informational purpose only. यहाँ दिए गए “Buy/Sell” या “Target” signals AI-generated insights हैं — ये किसी प्रकार की personal investment advice नहीं है।

⚔️ BTC @ $103,300 — Smart Money Pinning Below $103.8K into 12 Nov Expiry; Controlled Range Setup Active

Expiry: 12 Nov 2025 (Today) • View: Next 18–20 Hours (Full Expiry Cycle)
Updated: 11 Nov, 10:50 ApM IST • Expected Range: $103.0K – $103.4K

• BTC Expiry Outlook

🔹 1️⃣ BTC Spot Chart Overview

• CMP: $103,300
• Trend: $106K → $103K short-term correction; base attempt near $103K
• RSI (14): 42–45 → neutral to mildly oversold
• CCI (20): −60 to −100 → downtrend exhaustion visible
• MACD (12,26,9): negative but flattening on lower TF; 4H below signal
• ADX (14): 31–36 → active trend, momentum slowing

Interpretation: $103K पर base बनाने की कोशिश; अभी decisive reversal नहीं। Smart money expiry को range-bound रखकर IV crush का फायदा ले रहा है।

🔹 2️⃣ BTC 103,200 CE (Call)

• CMP: ~ $878
• RSI (14): ~42 → weak recovery
• CCI (20): −64 → negative momentum
• MACD: +18.5 vs −116 → mixed; no clean bull cross
• ADX (14): 31.9 → trend flattening

Interpretation: $103.2K–$103.8K पर call writing से ceiling बनी है। $103.5K reclaim नहीं तो CE decay जारी।

🔹 3️⃣ BTC 103,200 PE (Put)

• CMP: ~ $336
• RSI (14): 43–58 → neutral→mildly bullish
• CCI (20): +46 → recovery momentum
• MACD: +52.3 vs +43.3 → slight bull cross
• ADX (14): ~36 → strength building

Interpretation: 103K के नीचे put defense strong. $103.0–$102.8K hold पर PE booking + CE decay likely.

🔹 4️⃣ BTC Option Chain Snapshot (12 Nov 2025)

Strike	CE OI	CE LTP	PE OI	PE LTP	Zone
$102,800	204.7K	$389	171.5K	$461	Support
$103,000	1.80M	$461	1.80M	$523	⚔️ Battle Zone
$103,200	434K	$523	41K	$336	Resistance
$103,400–$103,800	384–652K	$692–$916	—	—	Heavy Resistance
$104,000+	652K+	$907–$1,170	—	—	Major Ceiling

📊 PCR ≈ 0.88 → Slightly bearish bias • IV 36–39% flattening → expiry compression.

🔹 5️⃣ Smart Money Position Flow

Flow Type	Observation	Interpretation
CE Writing	Heavy @ 103.2K–103.8K	Upper cap setup
PE Writing	Defensive @ 102.8K–103K	Range base
CE Unwinding	Light profit booking above 104K	Bulls trimmed exposure
Delta Position	Neutral → Slight negative	Pin control confirmed

Summary: Expiry को $103.0–$103.4K में pin रखने का सेटअप; बड़े move की संभावना कम जब तक $102.8K या $103.8K decisively break न हों।

🔹 6️⃣ Expiry Timeline View

Session	Bias	Expected Move	Strategy Focus
Asia–London (Early)	Neutral → Mild Bullish	$102.9K–$103.5K	Short CE; scalp PE on dips
US Pre-Open	Mild Bearish	$103.4K–$103.0K	CE decay accelerates
Late US (Expiry Hour)	Range-bound / Pin	$103.0K–$103.3K	IV crush — avoid chasing

Expected Settlement: $103,050 – $103,400 • Breakout: > $103,800 • Breakdown: < $102,800

🔹 7️⃣ Technical Summary (Blog Tone)

⚙️ $103K–$103.4K का volatility trap active है। Indicators neutral; MACD flatten; RSI oversold से उठने की कोशिश। Call walls (103.2–103.8K) upside cap बना रहे हैं, जबकि 102.8–103K पर put defense base देता है — classic IV crush expiry।
📍 $103.8K+ close ⇒ short-covering to $104.5K • $102.8K break ⇒ next support $102.3K.

• 🎯 Target Zone: $103.0K–$103.4K
• 🧱 Support: $102.8K
• 💥 Resistance: $103.8K–$104.0K

💬 Quick Summary

• 🔸 Smart money expiry pin @ $103.0–$103.4K
• 🔸 CE heavy 103.2–103.8K → capped upside
• 🔸 PE writing 102.8–103.0K → strong base
• 🔸 Bias → Neutral to Slightly Bearish
• 🔸 Strategy → IV crush & range play
• 🔸 Watch → Post-expiry bounce setup for 13 Nov cycle

📌 Snapshot

Bias: Neutral → Slightly Bearish

Range: $103.0K – $103.4K

🧭 Key Levels

Support

• $103.0K — Pin zone
• $102.8K — Put wall

Resistance

• $103.2K–$103.8K — Call wall
• $104.0K — Major ceiling start

⚡ Indicators Snapshot

• RSI(14): 42–45
• CCI(20): −60 to −100
• MACD: Negative / flattening
• ADX(14): 31–36
• IV: 36–39% (flattening)

❓ FAQ

Q: क्या आज $104K+ दिखेगा?
A: Only if $103.8K decisively breaks; base case pin below it.

Q: सबसे अच्छा सेटअप?
A: Range play / CE short on pops; scalp PE near $103.0–$102.9K with tight SL.

Q: बड़ा risk?
A: Last-hour squeeze above $103.6K; avoid late chasing.

⚠️ Disclaimer / सूचना:

This content is shared purely for educational and informational purposes. यह किसी भी प्रकार की व्यक्तिगत निवेश सलाह (investment advice) नहीं है। The author/blog/platform shall not be responsible for any trading or investment losses arising from the use of this information. Crypto and derivative markets are highly volatile & risky — always do your own research and consult a certified advisor before taking any action.

All insights and analysis shown here are AI-based data models and algorithmic studies. यहाँ दिखाए गए “Buy”, “Sell” या “Target” केवल AI-generated analytical views हैं, intended to help traders & investors understand market behavior — not to give any direct trading signal. This content does not qualify as advisory service under SEBI norms.

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