💡 Note: This analysis is based on AI-powered models and is shared for educational & informational purpose only. यहाँ दिए गए “Buy/Sell” या “Target” signals AI-generated insights हैं — ये किसी प्रकार की personal investment advice नहीं है।
⚔️ BTC @ $103,280 — Expiry Pinned Between $103K–$103.4K; Smart Money Holding Range to Kill IV
Updated: 12 Nov, 10:30 AM IST • CMP: $103,280
🔹 1️⃣ BTC Spot Chart Overview
- Trend: Short-term downtrend slowing; sideways base forming near $103K
- Structure (5m/15m): Multiple lower highs → compression at $103K
- Momentum: Weak recovery attempts, capped near $103.3–$103.4K
- RSI (est.): 45–48 → neutral
- MACD: slightly positive on 5m, flat on 15m → low momentum
- CCI: −100 → oscillating; no strong trend
- ADX: 14–16 → trendless expiry pattern
Interpretation: Spot stuck in a tight expiry range. Smart money compressing volatility to force IV decay — classic expiry-pin setup.
🔹 2️⃣ BTC 103200 CE (Call Option)
- CMP: $386.7
- RSI (14): 45–46 → neutral
- CCI (20): −76 → mild recovery from oversold
- MACD: −10.6 vs −14.6 → flattening (early bullish divergence)
- ADX (14): 14.2 → weak trend
Interpretation: CE buyers inactive; premium stabilized after deep erosion. If spot sustains above $103.4K, CE can pop to $430–$460; otherwise range-bound decay until close.
🔹 3️⃣ BTC 103200 PE (Put Option)
- CMP: $357.5
- RSI (14): ~47.5 → neutral
- CCI (20): +48.9 → small uptick
- MACD: +11.2 vs −19.9 → positive crossover forming
- ADX (14): 14.5 → no clear trend
Interpretation: PE side shows minor rebound. If BTC dips below $103K, PE can spike to $420–$460; if spot holds > $103.2K, expect decays toward $320–$340 into expiry.
🔹 4️⃣ BTC Option Chain Snapshot
| Strike | CE OI | CE LTP | PE OI | PE LTP | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 102,800 | 0.30M | $806 | 0.30M | $130 | Support |
| 103,000 | 1.88M | $521 | 1.04M | $243 | ⚔️ Battle Zone |
| 103,200 | 0.76M | $406 | 0.38M | $327 | Pivot |
| 103,400 | 0.30M | $317 | 0.30M | $430 | Resistance |
| 103,600–104,000 | 0.23M–0.13M | $231–$124 | 0.13M–0.06M | $684–$848 | Heavy Resistance |
📊 PCR ≈ 0.89 → Slightly Bearish • IV ~31–33% → compressing (expiry decay).
🔹 5️⃣ Smart Money Positioning
| Observation | Meaning |
|---|---|
| CE writing @ 103.2–103.6K | Creating expiry ceiling |
| PE writing @ 102.8–103K | Holding short-term floor |
| CE unwinding @ 104K+ | Bulls trimmed exposure |
| Volatility | Flattening → IV crush expected |
🔹 6️⃣ Expiry Timeline View (12 Nov 2025)
| Session | Bias | Likely Range | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia (Current) | Neutral | $103.0K–$103.4K | Range scalp both sides |
| London | Slight Bullish | $103.2K–$103.5K | CE recovery possible |
| US Pre-Open | Neutral → Bearish | $103.0K–$103.3K | Final decay & expiry pin |
Expected Settlement Range: $103,050 – $103,350 • Breakout Level: > $103,600 • Breakdown Level: < $102,900
🔹 7️⃣ Technical Summary (Blog Tone)
If $103.4K–$103.6K breaks → quick CE spike to ~$460 possible. If $103K breaks → PE expiry burst up to ~$440 possible.
- 🎯 Expiry Target Zone: $103.0K – $103.4K
- 🧱 Support: $102.8K – $103.0K
- 💥 Resistance: $103.4K – $103.6K
💬 Quick Summary
- 🔸 Smart money expiry pin @ $103.0K–$103.4K
- 🔸 CE & PE both flatten → IV crush play
- 🔸 Range-bound expiry; low directional momentum
- 🔸 Bias → Neutral to Slightly Bearish
- 🔸 Watch for post-expiry breakout setup on 13 Nov
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