💡 Note: This analysis is based on AI-powered models and is shared for educational & informational purpose only. यहाँ दिए गए “Buy/Sell” या “Target” signals AI-generated insights हैं — ये किसी प्रकार की personal investment advice नहीं है।
⚔️ NIFTY EXPIRY-DAY VIEW — CMP 26,150 (Smart Money Bearish-to-Neutral)
Updated: 02 Dec 2025 • Market Tone: Bearish Bias • Call Writers in Control
🧭 1️⃣ MULTI-TIMEFRAME PRICE TREND (4H / 30M / 5M)
📌 4H Chart — Macro Bias = Mild Weakness
- RSI: 55 → Neutral
- CCI: 14 → Flat
- MACD: Bearish slope (Signal > MACD)
- ADX: 13 → Trend weak
4H Interpretation: Trend ka strength clearly lose हो रहा है; koi strong bullish support नहीं दिखता.
➡️ Macro Bias: Mild Weakness, no upside momentum.
📌 30M Chart — Directional Bias = Bearish
- RSI: 42
- CCI: −174 → Strong negative pressure
- MACD: −12 vs −1.7 → Bearish expanding
- ADX: 17, −DI > +DI → Sellers in control
30M Interpretation: Expiry के लिए directional pressure downside पर है; sellers clearly control में हैं.
➡️ Expiry pressure = Bearish
📌 5M Chart — Intraday Bias = Bearish
- RSI: 37
- CCI: −115
- MACD: −9 vs −6 → Downtrend active
- ADX: 23, −DI > +DI → Short-term selling strong
5M Interpretation: Intraday पर हर bounce पर selling active है; small pullbacks आते हैं but structure down ही है.
➡️ Immediate Trend = Bearish with bounce attempts
🔥 2️⃣ ATM OPTION CHARTS — 26100 CE / PE
📉 26,100 CE (5m & 15m) — CLEAR WEAKNESS
- RSI: 30–33 → Weak
- CCI: −160 to −185 → Deep negative
- MACD: Strong bearish continuation
- ADX: 26–38 → CE downtrend strong
CE Conclusion: 26,100 CE par clear SELL-on-rise behaviour — हर spike पर profit-booking + fresh writing.
➡️ CE weak — upside premium decay zone.
📈 26,100 PE (5m & 15m) — Recovering but Weak
- RSI: 45–47 → Neutral to improving
- CCI: −41 (5m) & +43 (15m) → Recovery संकेत
- MACD: Near flat / Slightly improving
- ADX: 19–31 → कुछ strength build हो रही
PE Conclusion: PE में हल्का सा recovery दिख रहा है, पर अभी भी बहुत powerful नहीं — scalping type bounces मिल सकते हैं.
➡️ PE = Slight recovery, controlled strength.
📊 3️⃣ OPTION CHAIN SUMMARY (EXPIRY FOCUS)
CALL SIDE — Heavy OI Walls
- Massive CE OI buildup: 26,100 → 26,300 → 26,400 → 26,500
- 26,200 CE: ~1.28 Cr OI
- 26,300 CE: ~1.38 Cr OI
- 26,400 CE: ~1.92 Cr OI (सबसे बड़ा wall)
➡️ Upside heavily capped from 26,200–26,400 — expiry के लिए एक solid ceiling create हो चुका है।
PUT SIDE — Selective Support
- 26,000 PE: ~1.28 Cr OI → Major expiry support
- 25,900 PE: ~1.13 Cr OI → Secondary support
- Below 25,900 = support weak होता जाता है
➡️ Buyers mainly 26,000 & 25,900 पर active हैं — नीचे का zone weak है।
📌 PCR ≈ 0.72–0.75 → Clear Bearish Expiry Bias — charts और OI दोनों aligned हैं.
🧠 4️⃣ SMART MONEY POSITIONING
CE Writers:
• 26,150–26,400 zone में पूरी तरह dominate कर रहे हैं
• Koi visible unwinding नहीं
➡️ Expiry cap above 26,200 बहुत strong है।
PE Writers:
• 26,000 पर defend कर रहे हैं
• 25,900 ke नीचे कोई aggressive defence नहीं
➡️ Downside open till roughly 25,950–25,900.
🎯 5️⃣ PROJECTED TARGETS / EXPIRY-DAY TRADING VIEW
| Instrument | Entry Range | Target | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY Spot | 26,160 – 26,200 | 26,050 → 25,980 | 26,260 |
⚠️ ऊपर के levels सिर्फ neutral, expiry-structure based observation हैं — यह कोई financial advice नहीं है।
📌 6️⃣ EXPIRY EXPECTATION
- 🔻 Drift Zone (High Probability): 26,000 – 25,980
- 🔺 Upside Cap (Very Strong): 26,200 – 26,250
- 🧭 Final Expiry Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral
🏁 7️⃣ FINAL CONCLUSION (Smart Money + OI + Charts)
⚔️ NIFTY expiry pressure clearly downward है — Call writers पूरी तरह 26,150–26,400 पर dominate कर रहे हैं, Put writers सिर्फ 26,000 पर हल्का defence दे रहे हैं।
5M + 30M trend bearish, 4H weak, Option chain bearish — तीनों aligned हैं।
🎯 Expected Expiry Close: 26,000 – 26,050
✅ Confirmation केवल तब valid रहेगी जब NIFTY पूरे दिन 26,200 के नीचे sustain करे।
⚠️ यह पूरा analysis केवल educational purpose और market-structure understanding के लिए है — कोई भी trade लेने से पहले अपना खुद का risk-assessment और financial advisor की सलाह ज़रूर लें।
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