💡 Note: This analysis is based on AI-powered models and is shared for educational & informational purpose only. यहाँ दिए गए “Buy/Sell” या “Target” signals AI-generated insights हैं — ये किसी प्रकार की personal investment advice नहीं है।
⚔️ SENSEX @ 85,195 — Neutral-to-Mild Bearish Bias Below 85,400 (Expiry View)
Updated: 04 Dec 2025 • Market Tone: Neutral → Mild Bearish (Below 85,400)
🧩 1️⃣ PRICE STRUCTURE & TECHNICAL TREND (Multi-Timeframe)
🔹 (A) 5-MIN Chart — Short-Term Trend (Updated @ 85,195)
- RSI: 66.50 → Bullish but overextended
- CCI: 147.81 → Extreme overbought
- MACD: 63.03 vs 51.74 → Bullish momentum but flattening
- ADX: 22.92 → Trend forming, +DI > −DI (buyers still dominant)
Interpretation (5M): Strong intraday pullback के बाद solid upside reaction दिखा, लेकिन RSI और CCI दोनों overbought हैं — यानी short-term exhaustion clear है। Price को 85,220–85,260 के पास दो बार rejection मिला है।
➡️ Short-Term = Bullish but Exhausting near resistance
🔹 (B) 30-MIN Chart — Directional Trend
- RSI: 53.90 → Neutral to mildly positive
- CCI: 96.98 → Turning positive
- MACD: −76.81 vs −132.21 → Bullish crossover attempt (slope up)
- ADX: 25.70 → Trend forming
Interpretation (30M): 84,900–85,000 के आसपास clear base बन चुका है; MACD deep negative zone से rebound कर रहा है, यानी trend reversal attempt चल रहा है। RSI neutral से positive तरफ shift हो रहा है, पर trend अभी early stage में है — fully convincing नहीं।
➡️ Mid-term = Neutral to Mild Bullish
🔹 (C) 4-HOUR Chart — Macro Trend
- RSI: 51.09 → Neutral
- CCI: −52.00 → Weak negative
- MACD: 136 vs 236 → Bearish momentum (MACD < Signal)
- ADX: 13.03 → No strong trend (sideways / distribution)
Interpretation (4H): Macro structure अभी भी heavy है; November के top के बाद से momentum clearly down है। 85,700–85,900 के पास heavy supply है — वहां हर rally पर selling की संभावना ज़्यादा है। Market अभी distribution zone में फंसा है, कोई नया macro strength नहीं दिखता।
➡️ Macro = Neutral to Mild Bearish
🔥 2️⃣ OPTIONS CHART ANALYSIS (85,200 CE vs 85,200 PE)
📉 85,200 CE — Short-Term CE Behaviour
- RSI (5M+15M): 51–62 → Mild positive but weak
- CCI: 20–80 → Small bullish swings only
- MACD: Flat → No strong upside momentum
- ADX: 23–32 → Trend present, लेकिन कई जगह −DI > +DI
- Volume spikes mostly on down moves → CE selling active
CE Interpretation: 85,200 CE premiums अभी भी weak हैं — हर bounce पर selling pressure आता है। Spot में छोटी recovery के बाद भी demand नहीं दिखती, short covering absent है, ज़्यादातर move सिर्फ intraday noise जैसा है।
➡️ CE = Weak • Sell-on-rise behaviour (Observation only)
📈 85,200 PE — Short-Term PE Behaviour
- RSI (5M+15M): 34–57 → Volatile but improving
- CCI: −128 to +60 → Deep negative से strong recovery
- MACD: Bearish but flattening → Reversal attempt
- ADX: 29–35 → Trend strengthening; +DI rising, −DI falling
PE Interpretation: 85,200 PE clearly CE से strong है — dips पर buyers active हैं, structure weak से stable की तरफ shift हो रहा है, और recovery attempts visible हैं।
➡️ PE = Buy-on-dips behaviour (Observation only)
💰 3️⃣ OPTION CHAIN ANALYSIS (Night OI + Morning Live OI)
CMP: 85,195
CALL SIDE (CE) — Strong Overhead Supply
- Major OI Walls: 85,300 (heavy writing), 85,400 (strongest resistance), 85,500–85,600 (expiry ceiling)
- 86,000 तक लगातार call writing दिखाई देती है
- CE prices sharply falling; हर spike पर writers add कर रहे हैं
- No CE unwinding → solid bearish ceiling intact
➡️ Upside HARD CAP = 85,300–85,400 (expiry के लिए key rejection belt)
PUT SIDE (PE) — Support But Light Conviction
- Major Put OI: 85,000 (main support), 84,800 (secondary), 84,600 (weak support)
- PE prices में recovery visible है लेकिन 85,000 के नीचे OI depth हल्की है
- Smart money ने नीचे heavy put walls build नहीं किए
➡️ Downside OPEN = 84,800–84,600 — अगर 85,000 decisively टूटे, तो नीचे space खुला है।
🧮 PCR ≈ 0.75–0.82 → Reading: Neutral-to-Mild Bearish
🧠 SMART MONEY POSITIONING
- CE Writers: 85,300–85,600 पर domination — हर rise पर fresh writing, ceiling intact.
- PE Writers: केवल 85,000 पर defensive; नीचे 84,800–84,600 पर conviction बहुत हल्का।
➡️ Expiry अभी भी CE sellers के control में है — ऊपर 85,300–85,400 की wall बहुत strong है; नीचे 84,800 तक downside room open है।
➡️ Bias = Neutral → Mild Bearish (Expiry controlled by CE Sellers)
🎯 4️⃣ PROJECTED LEVELS (Expiry-Day Observational Table)
(Purely Analytical • NOT Financial Advice)
| Instrument | Entry Range | Target | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| SENSEX Spot | 85,150 – 85,240 | 84,900 – 84,750 | 85,420 |
📑 TECHNICAL SUMMARY
- 🧭 Smart Money Bias: Neutral → Mild Bearish
- 💥 Expiry Resistance: 85,300–85,400 (hard cap), extended 85,500–85,600
- 🧱 Expiry Support: 84,800–85,000 (primary zone)
- 📉 Settlement Expectation: 84,900–85,050 band
- 🚩 Market Structure: Intraday bounce active, but CE walls अभी भी intact हैं
🏁 FINAL CONCLUSION (Headline Style)
⚔️ SENSEX expiry अभी भी call writers के control में है — 85,300–85,400 की massive writing wall intact है।
Spot में intraday recovery दिखी है, लेकिन indicators बता रहे हैं कि यह bounce overextended है और अभी तक CE unwinding नहीं हुआ। Put writers सिर्फ 85,000 defend कर रहे हैं — नीचे 84,800 की तरफ downside space खुली हुई है।
📉 Overall Bias → Neutral-to-Mild Bearish below 85,300
🔻 Expiry Drift Zone → 84,900–85,050
🔺 Expiry Cap → 85,300–85,400
⚠️ यह पूरा view सिर्फ analytical / educational है — किसी भी तरह की financial advice नहीं है। Trade करने से पहले हमेशा अपना खुद का research और risk management ज़रूर use करें।
No comments:
Post a Comment