Sensex Expiry Analysis: CE Writers का पूरा कंट्रोल — Upside Cap @ 86,200–86,500 | Final Settlement View

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⚔️ SENSEX EXPIRY – FINAL ANALYSIS (CMP 85,900)

CMP: 85,900 • View: Expiry Day — Next Few Hours
Updated: 26 Nov 2025 • Market Tone: Bearish Bias Below 86,200

Sensex • Multi-TF + Options + Option Chain View

🧩 1️⃣ MULTI–TIMEFRAME PRICE TREND ANALYSIS

🔸 (A) 5-Minute Chart — Short-Term Control TF

• RSI: 44.58 → Neutral
• CCI: −88.86 → Mild Bearish
• MACD: −28 / −19 → Bearish momentum
• ADX: 18 → Low trend strength

5m Interpretation: Mild bearish momentum active है, strong trend नहीं है। छोटे-छोटे upside spikes possible हैं, लेकिन overall selling pressure dominate कर रहा है।
👉 Short-term bias = Sideways to Mild Bearish

🔸 (B) 30-Minute Chart — Directional TF

• RSI: 68.7 → Near Overbought
• CCI: 136 → Strong Positive
• MACD: 154 / 88 → Very Bullish (Extended)
• ADX: 24 → Trend active

30m Interpretation: Strong bullish momentum दिखाई दे रहा है, लेकिन काफी overextended zone में खड़ा है। 85,000–86,000 zone heavy supply की तरह काम कर रहा है — pullback की probability high है।
👉 30m bias = Bullish but Exhausted

🔸 (C) 4-Hour Chart — Macro Trend

• RSI: 62 → Bullish
• CCI: 148 → Strong Bullish
• MACD: 333 / 313 → Macro Bullish
• ADX: 14 → Weak trend (no big breakout strength)

4H Interpretation: Macro अभी भी bullish है, लेकिन trend strength missing है। 86,200–86,500 area macro resistance / supply zone बनता दिख रहा है।
👉 4H bias = Bullish but Weak

🔥 2️⃣ OPTIONS CHART ANALYSIS SUMMARY

📈 86,000 CE (5m + 15m)

• RSI: ~75 → Overbought
• CCI: ~295 → Very Overbought
• MACD: Bullish लेकिन flattening
• Volume: Huge spike (euphoria + profit-booking zone)

CE Conclusion: 86,000 CE बहुत strong दिखता है पर साथ ही extremely overbought भी है — यह साफ संकेत है कि profit-booking कभी भी शुरू हो सकती है।
➡️ 86,000 CE = SELL ON SPIKE ज़ोन.

📉 85,900 PE (5m + 15m)

• RSI: 16–22 → Deep Oversold
• CCI: −260 → Very weak
• MACD: Bearish continuation
• Volume: Panic selling type flow

PE Conclusion: 85,900 PE extremely weak है — कोई solid support नजर नहीं आता, लेकिन यही oversold zone इसे bounce-ready बनाता है अगर expiry से पहले pullback आता है।
➡️ PE = Deep Oversold, bounce on short-covering possible.

📊 3️⃣ OPTION CHAIN ANALYSIS (From Your Screenshots)

Strike	Side	Observation
85,900	CE	Massive OI buildup, expiry magnet zone
86,000	CE	Very heavy CE writing, strong resistance
86,200	CE	Strong call wall, upside cap
86,300–86,500	CE	Expiry CAP zone, hard ceiling
85,600–85,400	PE	Weak PE side, downside open

📌 CE OI Summary: 85,900 / 86,000 / 86,200 पर सबसे ज्यादा OI — clear है कि Call writers expiry को ऊपर जाने नहीं देना चाहते।
📌 PE OI Summary: PE side loosely built है, कोई solid defence नहीं; downside किसी भी समय open हो सकता है।

Option Flow Conclusion:
✔ Call writers completely in control of expiry
✔ Put writers almost absent → downside पर defence नहीं है
✔ Upside capped at 86,200–86,500
✔ अगर CE unwinding शुरू हुई → expiry pullback high probability

🎯 4️⃣ PROJECTED TARGETS / EXPIRY-DAY TRADING VIEW

Instrument	Action	Entry Range	Target	Stop Loss
Sensex Spot	SELL on rise	85,950 – 86,050	85,700 → 85,550	86,200

✔ 86,000 CE extremely overbought & high OI → सबसे अच्छा candidate selling के लिए।
✔ 85,900 / 85,800 PE deeply oversold → expiry के पहले किसी भी pullback पर sharp bounce दे सकते हैं।
✔ Spot resistance zone 86,050–86,200 अभी भी clearly SELL zone जैसा दिखता है।

🧭 5️⃣ EXPIRY RANGE EXPECTATION

• 🔺 Upside Cap (Hard Resistance): 86,200 – 86,500
• 🔻 Downside Expiry Drift Zone: 85,550 – 85,700
• 🎯 Expected Expiry Settlement Zone: 85,600 – 85,750

🏁 6️⃣ FINAL CONCLUSION (Headline Style)

⚔️ Headline: “Sensex expiry fully under CE writers’ control — upside locked below 86,200, expiry pullback towards 85,600–85,750 likely.”

📌 86,000 CE overbought + massive OI + PE weakness confirm करते हैं कि 86,200–86,500 strong expiry ceiling है।
📌 5m & 15m momentum अब धीरे-धीरे cool हो रहा है — expiry के नज़दीक आते-आते pullback की संभावना बढ़ती जा रही है।
📌 अगर CE unwinding trigger हुआ तो तेज़ slide 85,550 तक possible है, जिस पर expiry pin हो सकती है।

🎯 Final Settlement Expectation: 85,600 – 85,750
🔺 Upside Strict Block: 86,200
🔻 Risk Zone: CE unwinding = fast drop to 85,550.

⚠️ यह पूरा view सिर्फ technical + option-chain data पर आधारित educational analysis है, किसी भी तरह की financial advice या buy/sell recommendation नहीं। अपनी risk profile और capital के हिसाब से ही decision लें।

📌 Snapshot

Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral (Below 86,200)

CMP: 85,900

🧭 Key Zones

Support

• 85,700 — First expiry drift support
• 85,550 — Deeper expiry drift / target zone

Resistance

• 86,000 — Psychological + CE wall
• 86,200–86,500 — Hard expiry CAP zone

⚡ Indicators Snapshot

• 5m RSI: 44.5 → Neutral weak
• 30m RSI: 68.7 → Near Overbought
• 4H RSI: 62 → Bullish but flattening
• ADX (4H): 14 → Weak trend (expiry-driven moves)

❓ Quick FAQ

Q: क्या Sensex expiry पर 86,500 के ऊपर जा सकता है?
A: Option chain के हिसाब से 86,200–86,500 पर heavy CE walls हैं — इस zone के ऊपर sustain करने की संभावना बहुत कम दिखती है।

Q: अगर 86,200 के ऊपर चला गया तो?
A: वो short-lived spike हो सकता है — जब तक strong unwinding नहीं दिखती, इसे fade करने का setup ही मजबूत माना जाएगा (strict SL mandatory)।

Q: सबसे safe expiry idea क्या है?
A: Structure के हिसाब से SELL on rise near 85,950–86,050, 86,000 CE को spike पर sell करना और 85,900/85,800 PE को deep dips पर लेना (हमेशा tight SL के साथ) better reward–risk देता है।

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All insights and analysis shown here are AI-based data models and algorithmic studies. यहाँ दिखाए गए “Buy”, “Sell” या “Target” केवल AI-generated analytical views हैं, intended to help traders & investors understand market behavior — not to give any direct trading signal. This content does not qualify as advisory service under SEBI norms.

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