Option Chain: Heavy PE writing at 100.8–101K, PE defense near 101K

💡 Note: This analysis is based on AI-powered models and is shared for educational & informational purpose only. यहाँ दिए गए “Buy/Sell” या “Target” signals AI-generated insights हैं — ये किसी प्रकार की personal investment advice नहीं है।

⚔️ BTC @ $101,400 — Smart Money Triggers “Volatility Trap” Near $101K

Expiry: 13 Nov 2025 (Tomorrow) • View: 12–13 Hour Expiry-Driven Setup
Updated: 12 Nov, 11:59 PM IST • Active Range: $100.8K – $102.4K

BTC Expiry Outlook

🔹 1️⃣ BTC Spot Chart — Technical Structure

• CMP: $101,400
• Trend Context: $104.8K → $101K sharp drop (forced deleveraging) → “capitulation → accumulation” zone.
• 5m Highlights: Lower wicks; RSI ≈ 31–33 (oversold); MACD flattening; CCI ≈ −85; ADX ≈ 60+ (tired downtrend)
• 30m: Channel breakdown with $101K retest; RSI ~30 (5-day low); MACD near zero → bottoming signs; tight range $101.2K–$101.6K
• 4h: Downcycle from $106K → $101K; RSI ~35; MACD deep negative but flattening; key support $100.5K–$101.0K

Interpretation: Multi-TF oversold + exhaustion. Smart money likely defending the $101K base into expiry.

🔹 2️⃣ BTC Option Chain Snapshot (Expiry: 13 Nov 2025)

Strike	CE OI	CE LTP	PE OI	PE LTP	Zone
100,800	0.27M	$505	0.61M	$910	Support
101,000	0.09M	$569	0.92M	$642	⚔️ Pivot
101,200	0.53M	$991	0.92M	$642	Battle Zone
101,400	0.21M	$869	0.24M	$723	Resistance
101,600–102,000	0.38M–0.61M	$758–$505	0.24M–0.46M	$820–$1,020	Resistance Zone

📊 PCR ≈ 0.83 → Slightly Bearish (near-term). IV 46–47% → elevated & stable (breakout potential soon).

🔹 3️⃣ BTC 101200 CE (Call)

• CMP: ≈ $998
• RSI (14): ~31 → Deep oversold
• CCI (20): −89 → Reversal zone
• MACD: +62 vs −466 → Bullish divergence building
• ADX: ~61 → Strong but tiring trend

Interpretation: CE pricing for volatility rebound. $101.8K sustain ⇒ quick spike to $1,250–$1,400. Below $101K ⇒ CE decay resumes.

🔹 4️⃣ BTC 101200 PE (Put)

• CMP: ≈ $660
• RSI (14): ~61 → Near overbought
• CCI (20): +53 → Momentum peaking
• MACD: +116 vs +102 → Bearish divergence forming
• ADX: ~53 → Strong but flattening

Interpretation: PE profit-booking visible. BTC > $101.4K hold ⇒ PE can slip to $580–$520. Fresh PE strength only on $101K breakdown.

🔹 5️⃣ Smart Money Positioning

Observation	Meaning
CE short-covering (101K–102K)	Bullish leaning emerging
PE profit booking; light re-entry < 101K	“Flush & Reverse” play
Option volume easing post 21:00 UTC	Pre-expiry rebalancing
IV plateau ~47%	Breakout swing likely in 24–36h

🔹 6️⃣ Key Zones & Scenarios

Type	Level	Role
Support	$100.8K – $101.0K	Defensive accumulation base
Trigger	$101.8K – $102.2K	Short-covering breakout
Target (if breakout)	$102.8K – $103.0K	Profit / expiry squeeze
Breakdown Risk	< $100.8K	Flush to ~ $99.8K possible

📅 Expiry Smart Flow (13 Nov 2025)

Session	Bias	Range	Notes
Asia Pre-open	Mild Bearish → Base	$100.8K–$101.6K	Trap shorts & collect IV
London	Short-covering	$101.6K–$102.0K	CE expansion; PE decay
US (Expiry Settling)	Neutral → Bullish	$101.8K–$102.4K	Likely IV crush / pin

🎯 Target Levels (Analysis — Not Advice)

Side	Entry / Trigger	Target	Invalidation / SL
CE (101200)	Above $101.8K sustain	$1,250–$1,400	Back below $101.4K
PE (101200)	Only on < $101K sustain	$700–$780	Back above $101.4K
Spot	—	$102.5K–$103.0K (bull case)	$100.8K breakdown risk

🧠 Technical Summary (Blog Style)

BTC exhaustion + oversold readings with option-side PE unwinding and early CE accumulation suggest a base near $101K. Smart money may attempt an expiry-day short-covering push if $101.8K is reclaimed.

📍 $100.8K decisive break ⇒ last liquidity flush toward $99.8K before a reversal setup.

• 🎯 Expected Pin: ~$101.4K ± $400 (≈ $101.0K–$101.8K)
• 🧱 Support: $100.8K–$101.0K
• 💥 Resistance / Trigger: $101.8K–$102.2K

💬 Quick Summary

• 🔸 Smart money base forming near $101K
• 🔸 IV high but stable → breakout window (24–36h)
• 🔸 CE buildup (101K–102K); PE profit-booking
• 🔸 Bias → Neutral → Mild Bullish (expiry-driven)
• 🔸 Watch $101.8K for the next move

📌 Snapshot

Bias: Neutral → Mild Bullish

Range: $101.0K – $102.4K

🧭 Key Zones

Support

• $100.8K – $101.0K — Accumulation base
• $101.4K — Pin magnet

Resistance

• $101.8K — Breakout trigger
• $102.2K — Follow-through check

⚡ Indicators Snapshot

• RSI(14): 30–35 (oversold → recovering)
• MACD: Negative → flattening
• CCI(20): ≈ −90 (reversal band)
• ADX(14): 60+ (exhaustion)
• IV: 46–47% (elevated / stable)

❓ FAQ

Q: क्या $103K आज/कल दिख सकता है?
A: Only if $101.8K decisively breaks and holds.

Q: Biggest risk?
A: $100.8K breakdown → quick flush toward $99.8K.

Q: Best setup?
A: Post-breakout CE scalps above $101.8K with tight SL.

⚠️ Disclaimer / सूचना:

This content is shared purely for educational and informational purposes. यह किसी भी प्रकार की व्यक्तिगत निवेश सलाह (investment advice) नहीं है। The author/blog/platform shall not be responsible for any trading or investment losses arising from the use of this information. Crypto and derivative markets are highly volatile & risky — always do your own research and consult a certified advisor before taking any action.

All insights and analysis shown here are AI-based data models and algorithmic studies. यहाँ दिखाए गए “Buy”, “Sell” या “Target” केवल AI-generated analytical views हैं, intended to help traders & investors understand market behavior — not to give any direct trading signal. This content does not qualify as advisory service under SEBI norms.

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